Postpandemia 8 - Political consequences

David Martín 29/05/2020 204
The social shock caused by the crisis will have political consequences, but surely not the ones we expect
Friends of Onda Layetana: Welcome to the latest installment of the Postpandemic. Today I'll try to anticipate the possible political consequences of this crisis.
In principle this is a program that I had no intention of doing, because as you know our station usually does a lot of political criticism and we had decided to make a stop, but you really asked us in the forum and it's also true that it's a conceptually interesting topic: How will it affect our politicians (and I'm talking about our politicians in Spain but also about our politicians around the world), how this crisis is going to affect them.
The first thing that we have to take into account is that the government to which the management of this global epidemic crisis has fallen .. this is a "brown" no matter where you take it, no matter how they do it. There are going to be a lot of governments that are going to change, that are going to fall because of the management of the pandemic, especially because of this first pandemic of modern times for which, although we should have been prepared and scientists have warned for a long time, we are not really prepared.
And it is one thing to be unprepared and another thing to have been disastrous as have been denialists like the Russian government, like Boris Johnson, like Jair Bolsonaro or like Donald Trump. Like many people who have laughed at this, they have even been caught and they have had no choice but to react late and, in many cases, badly.
Almost all have reacted late, with notable exceptions such as Portugal or South Korea, and many, if not most, have reacted badly. And of course a great European lack of coordination has been shown, a "save yourself who can". The European Union has been conspicuous by its absence and is barely beginning to be visible now, when planning reconstruction measures, but its absence in the early days of the pandemic has been resounding and that is something that will have to be corrected for the future.
So we are going to focus now on politics in Spain, our country, on how things are being done and what consequences they could bring.
In our country, the people have shown tremendous solidarity, while the politicians, by far and different from other countries, have entered into a trench war that really embarrasses us. And I am going to tell you one thing: people are going to value a lot when facing this crisis, not only if they are doing it right or wrong, but who is taking advantage of this to make politics, who is really doing state politics. And very few are saved.
For example, the current government has fallen a beastly "brown", but on the other hand it has a positive factor in its future and it is leadership or "appearance" of leadership. That the current executive has assumed that responsibility and shows up every day showing his face on television (too much, in fact, since what should be communicated about the pandemic often leads to authentic party campaign content) has given an image of control of the situation and apparent professionalism that has managed to convey to people the feeling that whoever pulls the strings really knows what they are doing. That image has hypnotized the audience the first few days and has fostered a sense of trust in the government until some cracks have begun to emerge with little details that are not reassuring, such as censorship and impediments to journalists so that they can control the action of the government.
However, I insist that the government is communicating every advance to the public every day, that it is confronted by television with that official bearing and attitude, that creates a kind of Stockholm syndrome. I am not psychological, a psychological one would know how to explain it better, but the fact that people feel helpless and at the expense of the news that these communicators communicate to them daily, with a ritual of solemnity, with no other option than to wait for that news to improve .. that creates a bond of dependency. Everyone must follow the government's recommendations, and the government has not let anyone else participate in those decisions. The socialist party, which never refers to itself more than as "the government of Spain" (as it can not be otherwise), has assumed that responsibility as its own and not transferable and people can transform that feeling of dependency into Thank you for that responsibility that you have assumed, even if you have managed it in the best or worst possible way. And that is an effect that must be taken into account.
Possibly in the future there will be opposition politicians who will affirm incredulous "But they have made it fatal!" Why do they vote for you again?
That Stockholm Syndrome, will make many people not forget those images and that feeling of dependency and think that they owe this government something, that the government has saved their lives, although Spain has the sad record of being the country with the most percentage dead by number of inhabitants.
The government has carried out a communication strategy, and here I am going to focus on Pedro Sánchez's interventions and on those endless apparitions of an hour or an hour and a half to say things that they could communicate in ten minutes, and it is somewhat hypnotic.
I will comment something to you: I have worked in public services and in the public service you can have people very angry if you give them few explanations. If you give them many explanations you will be satisfied. If you give them a lot of explanations you have them boring. Well, it seems that Pedro Sánchez has decided that better boring than angry. And he is doing it. It is boring people to the point that you stand in front of the TV with avidity to check what news there is and in half an hour you do not care what it is saying. You have gone into Zen mode and Pedro Sánchez's voice is already a mantra that numbs your restlessness and allows you to evade the mind and feel good. Because Sánchez does nothing but talk and talk, and that has its risks too, because when you want to fill an hour and a half of dialogue to not say anything, you end up saying real bullshit like "how beautiful is this country because the internet is very good" or that "we are improving a lot as a soviedad because the children wash their hands much more than doing a few weeks". But hey. It is your strategy.
Finally, I want to review the reaction of the entire political axis from the extreme right to the extreme left to see more or less how they are doing.
I will start with VOX. What is VOX doing? Well, basically he is doing posture. Get on with it, and it is already a task that I think they tire themselves. Possibly they demand that they take all the reactions to such an extreme. It seems that they think they have something to show the electorate that they think they have. Because I believe that the VOX electorate has voted for one thing and they think that they have voted for another. I am not going to delve into that analysis because it is not the objective, but it gives the impression that its objective is to see who says the fattest nonsense possible. You are one of the parties that is doing more politics and less state politics.
The Popular Party gives the impression that it is doing a little more state politics, although it really continues to do party politics. Pablo Casado began by talking about his "loyalty" to the government and in the first part of the state of alarm he backed it up with acts, although after each support he slipped a "zasca", until he turned his back on the government.
Then comes Citizens. Ciudadanos is a party that, after the last electoral debacle, is politically in one of its lowest hours. However (or perhaps because of it) Inés Arrimadas is doing or at least pretending to do what a good politician is supposed to do. It is one of the parties that is now doing what is expected of a party in such a crisis, which is to support a measure when it believes that it is logical despite the tacticisms, to propose alternatives when they occur to them and leave the "zascas" to when this crisis is over. Of course it is not that they have many other options. But at least they are.
The PSOE we skipped because it is the government and we have already talked about the government.
And we have reached the extreme left, the people of Unidas Podemos. A lot of people are messing with them, and I or I say: do not mess with them who have done nothing.
But nothing. They have done absolutely nothing. Skip the quarantine a couple of times to appear in the photo and participate in one in ten press conferences to make it appear that they are collaborating on something, because (very intelligently) the Pedro Sánchez government is not letting them "suck camera "(no matter if they exercise" shadow government ", as the pact with Bildu seems to show). The PSOE does not let them participate publicly in anything, not because their management is going to be worse, but because they want full responsibility for themselves, for good and for bad. That is their strategy.
I think it is a wrong government strategy. I believe that it would be necessary to participate not only with we can, but with all the political forces, to participate in the proposals of the entire political spectrum, but they do not want to do it. We will see if it turns out positive or negative.
In any case, Unidas Podemos has tremendous power behind the scenes, but when it comes to the public, it doesn't seem to paint anything.
Once we have reviewed the entire political axis we are left with something that I have deliberately left out to put at the end: Nationalisms.
Nationalisms, like this in general, are being the least loyal political forces not to the government but to the citizens, because they are the ones that are exclusively making party politics instead of making high politics, politics to solve, proactive politics.
Because of course, in a crisis like this, when power is concentrated in the central government to be able to take a series of emergency measures and solve such a big problem for all the parties that are not making those main decisions. What is their true responsibility? It is contributing ideas to the government and not being the protagonists, but being the chain of transmission in their respective communities, and this sinks the nationalists.
Because the nationalists what they want is to take the baton as they have always carried it, to hang the medals if there are any and to blame the "Spanish state" as they have always done (and it is not that the Spanish government lacks blame) remove all the "dandruff" from above. That is what nationalisms do and it bursts them not to be able to do them and that is leading them to make a very ugly policy. While the national parties are debating whether to protect health or protect employment, nationalists demand the return of autonomous competences as if their lives were lost. What do you think matters most to a citizen? His health, his employment or the autonomic competitions ?.
In this case, when the nationalist parties (Esquerra Republicana, PDECAT, Bildu) are so clear that confinement is essential and there is a general vote and they abstain. Why do they abstain? For protesting? But what protest or what the hell? They abstain because they know that the theoretical opposition, the center, right and extreme right parties are going to vote in favor of responsibility, that they are not going to go against the citizen. But the nationalists do vote something that goes against the citizens, but of course, nothing happens because the opposition will support them. Really? That is to do trench politics, when what they should do is be in favor of any measure that is in favor of the citizens. In addition, his efforts are in question, both the management of Torra (the worst by far) as well as that of Urkullu. And apart from that they are driving the government crazy (which is already quite crazy by itself) because we have Urkullu saying to Sánchez "no, man you cannot stop all activity" and Torra saying to Sánchez "man you should have paralyzed him before." That is coordinated cooperation. That is taking things as they should be.
In addition, Torra has spent his time telling the BBC that he wants total confinement and Pedro Sanchez is against confinement. Of course, later he had to qualify it, because reality is not as he has explained it. Or later the Generalitat of Catalonia demanding to extend the confinement in Igualada and the next day demanding that the central government lift it. Please, how much things do not change in 24 hours. And let's not mention the theoretical head of Torra, Carles Puigdemont, because of course, it is supposed that in a crisis like this we are not going to do gesture politics, we are not going to cut the Median (in short, we are not going to do the things they were doing just the day before the alarm decree). Because there is something frivolous and many citizens will think that we are not dedicating ourselves to citizens but that we are doing these performances.
With which Puigdemont and Ponsatí have been left more alone than one, and better for them not to attract the spotlight after the more than likely massive contagion that the nationalist pilgrimage to Perpignan of 29-F supposed that could be the trigger for the spread of the COVID-19 in Catalonia according to the Catcovidtransparencia report, not to mention the tone outs in the tweets shared by Puigdemont and Ponsatí "From Madrid to heaven". These things are very embarrassing.
Well mired. Just as before I have spoken well about how Citizens are behaving (someone will say "look, this one votes for Citizens") because now I am going to speak well of how Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya is behaving. ERC is closed-mouthed, leaving Torra, Puigdemont, Ponsatí and company to capitalize on the ridicule of independence to end up seeing the corpse of their enemy go by and that when all this crisis is over they have not gotten wet and it is they who will take the nationalist revenue by simple discard.
In other words, with few and honorable exceptions here in Spain, all the parties are doing politics, they are playing "I put on the medal and blame it on another." A rather shameful thing when we are seeing however images of greatness in the population at street level, when we are seeing people strictly following the confinement with four stupid exceptions. When we are seeing the police corps greet and honor one another. And it doesn't matter if you are Ertzaina. It doesn't matter if you are Mosso de Esquadra, if you are a Civil Guard, Local Police, National Police or Spanish Army. It does not matter if you are a doctor, nurse, warden, if you are dependent on Carrefour or Mercadona. Does not matter.
Because they are all on the front line. They are all playing the guy differently and for them there are no borders. For them there are no differences, they are people whose health must be protected.
That is what is filling this country with dignity and the politicians on the contrary. And people are going to judge him.
I take this opportunity to say goodbye now that the confinement is no longer so severe. You are welcome to comment what you want, and we will see you soon, in other sections and, now, yes, in the new normality.
But be careful, this is not over.